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Daily Gold Market Analysis- 31 January 2025

31 January 2025
OTC Market Data
High
Low
Close
Previous
Change ZAR
Change %
Gold
54666
53735
54618
53875
+743
+1.38%

Gold prices continue their historic rally, reaching fresh record highs as geopolitical risks and trade war fears drive investors toward safe-haven assets. The latest surge follows US President Donald Trump’s renewed tariff threats against BRICS nations, further fueling uncertainty in global trade. Meanwhile, rebounding US Treasury bond yields are lending support to the US Dollar, capping some of gold’s upside potential. As traders look ahead to key US economic data, including the PCE Price Index, today’s analysis examines the fundamental and technical drivers shaping gold’s trajectory.

Fundamental Analysis

Gold continues its upward march, nearing the $2,800 mark as fresh fund inflows drive demand amid rising trade war concerns and geopolitical uncertainty. President Trump’s latest tariff threats, specifically targeting BRICS nations with potential 100% tariffs if they attempt to replace the US Dollar in international trade, have spurred investors to seek safe-haven assets such as gold, the USD, and US government bonds.

The US economy posted slower growth in Q4, with GDP rising at an annualized rate of 2.3%, falling short of the expected 2.6% and down from 3.1% in the previous quarter. This data reinforces expectations of economic moderation, keeping markets on edge ahead of the US PCE Price Index report. Any signs of inflationary pressure could further influence Federal Reserve policy expectations and impact gold prices.

Gold Technical Analysis

Gold prices are holding strong near record highs after decisively surpassing the symmetrical triangle target of $2,785 and the previous all-time high of $2,790. The technical indicators suggest further upside potential, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 67, still below overbought territory, signaling room for continued gains.

A Bull Cross formation—where the 50-day and 100-day moving averages confirm an uptrend—remains in play, reinforcing the bullish bias. Gold now needs a sustained move above $2,800 to target the next resistance at $2,850.

  • Technical Indicators:
    • Stochastic Oscillator: 90 (overbought, potential short-term consolidation)
    • Relative Strength Index (RSI): 67 (bullish, but approaching overbought levels)
Support 3
Support 2
Support 1
Current Market Price
Resistance 1
Resistance 2
Resistance 3
52706
53328
53663
54416
54600
55125
55650

Indicator Definitions

  • Stochastic Oscillator:
    A momentum indicator that measures an asset’s closing price relative to its price range over a specified period. Readings above 80 indicate overbought conditions, while readings below 20 suggest oversold conditions.
  • Relative Strength Index (RSI):
    A technical indicator that measures the magnitude and speed of price movements. Readings above 70 suggest overbought conditions, while readings below 30 indicate oversold levels.
Key US Economic Reports & Events
When
Actual
Expected
Previous
Core PCE Price Index m/m
5:30pm
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
Employment Cost Index q/q
5:30pm
0.9%
0.9%
0.8%
Chicago PMI
6:45pm
39.5
40.3
36.9

Conclusion

Gold’s record-breaking rally continues as geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty drive demand for safe-haven assets. While technical indicators suggest room for further upside, traders should watch for potential resistance at $2,800 and $2,850, while key support levels at $2,785 and $2,750 remain critical for maintaining bullish momentum.

As markets await the US PCE Price Index and further Federal Reserve commentary, gold’s trajectory will depend on how inflation data impacts expectations of future monetary policy. With ongoing trade war risks and economic moderation in focus, gold remains a key asset for risk management and portfolio diversification.

Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and is based on data from reputable sources. It does not constitute investment advice. ISA BULLION (Pty) Ltd makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information provided and disclaims any liability for losses resulting from reliance on it. Users are encouraged to conduct independent research and seek guidance from professional advisors before making investment decisions. ISA BULLION (Pty) Ltd, along with its directors, partners, officers, employees, and agents, expressly disclaims responsibility for any direct or indirect loss or damage resulting from the use or reliance on the information contained herein​.